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Armenian HS-10 Export Surge — Post-Invasion Product Identification

Source: ArmStat annual bulk XLSX (10-digit EEU Commodity Nomenclature) Method: Compare 2021 baseline exports vs 2023/2024 for dual-use sections.

The signal: Comtrade showed Armenia→Russia HS85 exports grew 46x in 2023. Armenia does not domestically produce most of these goods — they are re-exports. The 10-digit codes below name the exact products that surged.

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Basis and limitations. Findings in this brief are derived from public records — kad.arbitr.ru arbitration filings, EGRUL registry extracts, zakupki.gov.ru procurement contracts, and official sanctions lists — and from algorithmic scoring described in the methodology. Scores are triage outputs, not legal determinations. Court co-litigation measures litigation frequency with listed parties, not culpability; procurement links may reflect arm's-length commerce. Named entities may dispute factual errors via derek.linz@linzalytics.com (subject "Dispute request"); the review process and timelines are on the methodology page, and material corrections are logged at /intel/corrections.html with dates.