Predictive Backtest — Did Our Signals Anticipate Designations?
Generated 2026-09-11T02:42:37+00:00
Point-in-time honest: a signal counts only when the linked party was already sanctioned by some jurisdiction at the time of the court case / ownership stake, and that predates the entity's own designation. Measures recall + lead time, not precision. Channels: co-litigation, ownership (≥50% and 10-50%), shared directorship, and procurement (contract signed after the counterparty's designation). Anchors: OFAC + EU/UK/UA/CA/AU/JP/CH/NZ.
Two distinct claims — do not conflate them:
- Improvement (apples-to-apples): adding the procurement + minority-ownership channels lifts recall from 33.7% → 41.6% (legacy 3 channels vs all 5, on the same court-present cohort of 6,193, since 2022-01-01). Channel change only.
- Current-state recall: 41.0% (2,627/6,409) on the broadened court∪procurement denominator — the honest present-day figure. Slightly below 41.6% because procurement reveals more entities than its signals always anticipate (mild, expected dilution). Do NOT compare this to the legacy 33.7% — that would conflate the channel change with a denominator change.
Recall by jurisdiction (court-present, since 2022-01-01)
| Jurisdiction | Present | Anticipated | Recall | Median lead | p75 lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CH | 92 | 72 | 78.3% | 2632d | 3304d |
| EU | 487 | 348 | 71.5% | 2425d | 3207d |
| UK | 279 | 165 | 59.1% | 1777d | 3027d |
| OFAC | 2,555 | 1,233 | 48.3% | 2152d | 2790d |
| UA | 4,973 | 2,239 | 45.0% | 1860d | 2656d |
| any (first designation) | 6,193 | 2,579 | 41.6% | 1793d | 2621d |
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