Predictive Backtest — Did Our Signals Anticipate Designations?
Generated 2026-06-11T00:46:40+00:00
Point-in-time honest: a signal counts only when the linked party was already sanctioned by some jurisdiction at the time of the court case / ownership stake, and that predates the entity's own designation. Measures recall + lead time, not precision. Recall is on the court-present denominator (entities our Russian court data can actually see). Anchors: OFAC + EU/UK/UA/CA/AU/JP/CH/NZ.
Recall by jurisdiction (court-present, since 2022-01-01)
| Jurisdiction | Court-present | Anticipated | Recall | Median lead | p75 lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CH | 90 | 56 | 62.2% | 867d | 1761d |
| EU | 343 | 206 | 60.1% | 1168d | 1945d |
| UK | 238 | 117 | 49.2% | 870d | 1729d |
| OFAC | 2,314 | 886 | 38.3% | 778d | 1546d |
| UA | 4,597 | 1,518 | 33.0% | 773d | 1481d |
| any (first designation) | 5,602 | 1,692 | 30.2% | 729d | 1440d |
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