Predictive Backtest — Did Our Signals Anticipate Designations?
Generated 2026-10-27T02:55:49+00:00
Point-in-time honest: a signal counts only when the linked party was already sanctioned by some jurisdiction at the time of the court case / ownership stake, and that predates the entity's own designation. Measures recall + lead time, not precision. Channels: co-litigation, ownership (≥50% and 10-50%), shared directorship, and procurement (contract signed after the counterparty's designation). Anchors: OFAC + EU/UK/UA/CA/AU/JP/CH/NZ.
Two distinct claims — do not conflate them:
- Improvement (apples-to-apples): adding the procurement + minority-ownership channels lifts recall from 32.1% → 39.0% (legacy 3 channels vs all 5, on the same court-present cohort of 6,315, since 2022-01-01). Channel change only.
- Current-state recall: 38.5% (2,511/6,530) on the broadened court∪procurement denominator — the honest present-day figure. Slightly below 39.0% because procurement reveals more entities than its signals always anticipate (mild, expected dilution). Do NOT compare this to the legacy 32.1% — that would conflate the channel change with a denominator change.
Recall by jurisdiction (court-present, since 2022-01-01)
| Jurisdiction | Present | Anticipated | Recall | Median lead | p75 lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CH | 92 | 71 | 77.2% | 2232d | 3171d |
| EU | 490 | 335 | 68.4% | 2117d | 3068d |
| UK | 289 | 158 | 54.7% | 1711d | 2975d |
| OFAC | 2,556 | 1,122 | 43.9% | 1905d | 2706d |
| UA | 5,090 | 2,149 | 42.2% | 1759d | 2612d |
| any (first designation) | 6,315 | 2,465 | 39.0% | 1663d | 2594d |
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