Eurostat Triangulation — EU27 → Hub → Russia
Hypothesis: If EU exports to an intermediary country surge on a category AND that intermediary's exports to Russia on the same category also surge, the intermediary is a triangulated circumvention channel with EU origin.
Rule: EU→hub growth ≥ 1.3x AND hub→Russia growth ≥ 1.5x (both 2023 vs 2021)
Triangulated Channels
| Hub | SITC | EU→Hub '21 | EU→Hub '23 | EU leg | Hub→RU leg | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrgyzstan | SITC5: Chemicals & related p | €0M | €0M | 3.21x | 122.29x | 392.55 |
| Kyrgyzstan | SITC6+8: Manufactured goods | €0M | €0M | 9.84x | 23.52x | 231.44 |
| Armenia | SITC7: Machinery & transport | €0M | €0M | 4.18x | 46.40x | 193.95 |
| Kyrgyzstan | SITC7: Machinery & transport | €0M | €0M | 20.61x | 8.86x | 182.60 |
| Kazakhstan | SITC6+8: Manufactured goods | €0M | €0M | 2.30x | 8.92x | 20.52 |
| Kazakhstan | SITC7: Machinery & transport | €0M | €0M | 2.65x | 6.63x | 17.57 |
| Armenia | SITC6+8: Manufactured goods | €0M | €0M | 2.47x | 6.94x | 17.14 |
| Turkey | SITC6+8: Manufactured goods | €0M | €0M | 1.38x | 6.80x | 9.38 |
| Georgia | SITC7: Machinery & transport | €0M | €0M | 2.32x | 3.02x | 7.01 |
| Kazakhstan | SITC5: Chemicals & related p | €0M | €0M | 1.46x | 4.40x | 6.42 |
| UAE | SITC7: Machinery & transport | €0M | €0M | 1.31x | 3.57x | 4.68 |
| Turkey | SITC7: Machinery & transport | €0M | €0M | 1.80x | 2.16x | 3.89 |
| Armenia | SITC5: Chemicals & related p | €0M | €0M | 2.01x | 1.88x | 3.78 |
| Serbia | SITC7: Machinery & transport | €0M | €0M | 1.32x | 2.16x | 2.85 |
| Georgia | SITC5: Chemicals & related p | €0M | €0M | 1.42x | 1.80x | 2.56 |
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