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Customs Intelligence — Transshipment, EU Direct & Triangulation Flows

Source: UN Comtrade public API
Coverage: 16 transshipment hubs + 14 EU member states × 8 HS chapters × 4 years
Triangulation: 8 EU reporters × 16 hubs Flow: exports (hub/EU→Russia; EU→hub for triangulation leg)

Methodology

Three-leg analysis:

Part I — Transshipment hubs 🚩 flagged: ≥ 2x growth AND > $10M in 2023. Part II — EU direct to Russia ⚠️ flagged: > $5M in 2023 (expected near-zero). Part III — Triangulation matrix 🔗 flagged: EU→hub ≥ $50M AND hub→Russia growth ≥ 1.5x in same HS chapter — identifies probable EU-origin supply chains.

HS: machinery (84), electronics (85), vehicles (87), aircraft (88), ships (89), precision instruments (90), chemical precursors (29/38).


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Basis and limitations. Findings in this brief are derived from public records — kad.arbitr.ru arbitration filings, EGRUL registry extracts, zakupki.gov.ru procurement contracts, and official sanctions lists — and from algorithmic scoring described in the methodology. Scores are triage outputs, not legal determinations. Court co-litigation measures litigation frequency with listed parties, not culpability; procurement links may reflect arm's-length commerce. Named entities may dispute factual errors via derek.linz@linzalytics.com (subject "Dispute request"); the review process and timelines are on the methodology page, and material corrections are logged at /intel/corrections.html with dates.